Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 0.355139 0.407938 0.465282 0.532111 0.607771 0.690689 0.788364
2025-07-20 0.283270 0.354037 0.436942 0.540929 0.667541 0.816352 1.004144
2025-07-27 0.234708 0.317140 0.420666 0.559490 0.739948 0.965660 1.268331
2025-08-03 0.197217 0.286957 0.407296 0.579065 0.816274 1.130376 1.575471
2025-08-10 0.156143 0.244340 0.370434 0.561632 0.841452 1.232613 1.816520
2025-08-17 0.122024 0.205006 0.331249 0.534136 0.847953 1.309697 2.033470
2025-08-24 0.099895 0.179517 0.307952 0.525888 0.880712 1.427963 2.324889
2025-08-31 0.082146 0.157557 0.286245 0.516233 0.909300 1.542961 2.625680
2025-09-07 0.071347 0.145404 0.278545 0.528116 0.973966 1.722132 3.049400
2025-09-14 0.058127 0.126050 0.254818 0.508107 0.981161 1.807356 3.328619
2025-09-21 0.048962 0.112623 0.239509 0.500627 1.008902 1.930059 3.685272
2025-09-28 0.041108 0.100184 0.223829 0.489667 1.028158 2.039249 4.029725
2025-10-05 0.036569 0.094259 0.220825 0.504600 1.101637 2.260860 4.614192
2025-10-12 0.031442 0.085840 0.211063 0.504028 1.144418 2.430303 5.122112
2025-10-19 0.027867 0.080354 0.206795 0.514676 1.212132 2.657011 5.768730
2025-10-26 0.024920 0.075777 0.203791 0.527710 1.286964 2.907246 6.491782
2025-11-02 0.020676 0.066637 0.187993 0.508103 1.286488 3.001236 6.905066
2025-11-09 0.016805 0.057487 0.170262 0.480521 1.263332 3.043543 7.213827
2025-11-16 0.014331 0.051809 0.160478 0.471210 1.282068 3.180060 7.742551
2025-11-23 0.012218 0.046664 0.151075 0.461164 1.297410 3.310522 8.272287
2025-11-30 0.011033 0.044261 0.149042 0.470866 1.364307 3.568753 9.122316
2025-12-07 0.009217 0.039110 0.137694 0.452174 1.354100 3.641562 9.546342
2025-12-14 0.007966 0.035624 0.130726 0.444946 1.373588 3.789078 10.164914